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1 in 7 (14.7%) Germans 32 & Younger Are Muslim—3 Times What Angela Merkel’s Government Claims

 

1 in 7 (14.7%) Germans 32 & Younger Are Muslim—3 Times What Angela Merkel’s Government Claims

February 19, 2017
Spencer P Morrison
NationalEconomicsEditorial.com

german girls welcome refugees

Germany’s population is declining, and this will cause economic problems—but increased immigration and accepting refugees (migrants) won’t fix it.

In fact, by some estimates refugees have already cost Germany $1,241,050,000,000—this number will only grow, especially since Germany is now paying refugees to leave.

This article looks at the logic behind Chancellor Merkel’s “immigration grows the economy” argument, and nails down the facts.

I find that there are 7.89 million Muslims in Germany, all immigrants (1st, 2nd, or rarely 3rd) or refugees—14.7% of Germany’s population ages 32 and under is Muslim.

This exacerbates the problems faced by Germany and its aging population, since the majority of these people do not contribute to Germany’s lavish welfare system.  This has led to a number of economic problems.

Immigration Does Not Always Cause Economic Growth

The first distinction we need to make is between economic growth and prosperity.

While’s true that increasing the number of people in an economy will almost always cause economic growth in absolute terms (more people means more workers), this doesn’t mean it will make the economy more prosperous (average wealth won’t necessarily increase).

Think of it like this: say someone immigrates to Germany from Poland.  They add $20,000 per year in value to the economy—the economy grew.

However, pretend the average value of a laborer in Germany is $40,000.  In this case, the Polish immigrant did not increase Germany’s prosperity (he brought the average down).

This is especially true if we imagine that Germany’s welfare system ensures that everyone’s standard of living equates to an income of $30,000 a year.  In this case, other people will be taxed to ensure the Polish immigrant has a better quality of life.

Now pretend the numbers were reversed: the Polish immigrant provides $40,000 in value, while the average German only adds $20,000—the Polish immigrant now both grew the economy and increased Germany’s prosperity.

In fact, he’s probably mad that he’s stuck subsidizing his compatriots standard of living.

This is why the type of immigrant matters: yes all immigrants will grow the economy (almost by definition), but that doesn’t mean they make the host country more prosperous—which is the true measure of economic success.

This is the logical mistake that mainstream economists and journalists always make; I see it everywhere from Fortune to Business Insider.

They conflate absolute economic growth with prosperity.  This is a ham-fisted way of seeing things.

With this in mind, let’s look at Germany’s recent crop of immigrants and see if they’re making Germany more prosperous.

Immigrants Are Changing Germany’s Demographic Structure, But Not It’s Economic Vitality

As I’ve said, Germany’s perceived economic problem is that its population is shrinking.

This endangers the welfare system, which operates like a giant Ponzi scheme: young, healthy, people pay into the system, while the old withdraw from it (pensions, healthcare costs etc.).  Germany’s problem is that there aren’t enough young people (because Germans didn’t have enough children) to support the system.

To support the system, Germany has opted to bring in immigrants from the very young, and fertile, Islamic world to replace the children they didn’t have, thereby supporting the system.

For Germany, immigration (and accepting refugees and migrants) is explicitly characterized as managed population replacement.

With that out of the way, let’s look closer at Germany’s demographics.

There are roughly 81 million Germans.  The median age is 46.1—among the oldest in the world.

In fact, only 26.8 million Germans are aged 32 and under—Germany’s big now, but it has a tiny future.germany population pyramid graph

So that’s Germany as a whole.  Let’s look more specifically at immigrant groups.

Most immigration to Germany is from other EU countries.  These immigrants have comparable levels of education and technical skills—more importantly, they have the soft skills to make it in Germany’s advanced labor market (things like language and cultural sensitivities that economists often ignore).

EU (and other Western) immigrants tend to grow Germany’s economy, but don’t strongly impact prosperity (since lower-skilled Romanian immigrants are balanced out by higher skilled British or American immigrants etc.).  It’s a wash.

The other major immigrant group are those from the Muslim world: these are mostly 1st or 2nd generation immigrants, and the large group of refugees and economic migrants that began arriving in 2014.

What is their economic impact?

Germany Is Home To Double The Number Of Muslims As Government Claims

Before we can calculate the economic impact of non-Western immigration to Germany, we have to figure out how many live in Germany.

I confess that when I started writing this article, I thought the number would be easy to find.

It’s not.

In fact, I believe that government agencies are actively suppressing the number of non-Western, particularly Muslim immigrants and refugees into Germany, in order to maintain order—similar to what’s currently happening in Sweden.

For the sake of this article, I confine my calculations to the number of Muslim-Germans (because this is by far the largest group of non-Westerners immigrating to Germany, and the data is the most readily available).

I believe this number serves as a reasonable proxy for all non-Western immigration into Germany (subject to a modifier of course).

So let’s look at the facts.

How Many Muslims Are In Germany?

According to The Guardian, there were 4.1 million Muslims in Germany in 2011 (as per their statistical projections).

Pew Research, on the other hand, pegged it higher, at 4.8 million in 2010.

Now, I specifically chose to find sources that pre-dated the refugee crisis, having a hunch that the numbers may be skewed for political purposes.

Jumping ahead to 2016: according to the CIA World Factbook, there are 2,986,743 in Germany at the end of 2016.  I presume this number doesn’t include refugees, although it’s still disturbingly low.

More troubling is the fact that when I looked at their archived page, I found that their website said in 2010 that there were 3,044,370 Muslims in Germany—the percentage of population (3.7% did not change), although the population estimates did.

So according to this US government source, we are led to believe that there are fewer Muslims in Germany now than 6 years ago—despite the fact that roughly 200,000 immigrate to Germany (legally) per year.

My only guess is that the CIA bases their estimates on the German census and didn’t bother to update the percentage.  But Germany had a census in 2011, so why wouldn’t it be updated to reflect that fact?

Even more troubling is that Germany’s Federal Office for Migration and Refugees stated that at the end of 2015 there were between 4.4 million and 4.7 Muslims in Germany—roughly the same number as in 2010 (again, before the migration crisis).

So that’s what the sources say, but what’s the real number?

Let’s split the difference between Pew and the Guardian and assume there are 4.3 million Muslims in Germany in 2010.

Add to that the natural increase in population of an estimated 77,000 per year and the roughly 200,000 legal immigrants per year and the number begins to take shape.

Finally, let’s add in the refugees.

In 2014 The Telegraph said 173,000 Syrian refugees arrived in Germany.

In 2015 The Telegraph wrote in October that Germany was on track to accept 1.5 million, while Bloomberg reported they took 1.1 million—I’ll split difference and say 1.3 million.

Finally, 280,000 migrants arrived in 2016 according to the New York Times.

All totaled, the Muslim population in Germany is7.89 million people, as of January, 2017.

That’s almost twice what Germany’s government believes.

Just as a side-note: if Germany wanted to help refugees so badly, why did they only accept 150 Ukrainian refugees during the same period, when there were 2.6 million Ukrainian refugees?

The Economic Impact Of Non-Western Immigration On Germany

This article isn’t interested in positing a hard number, what I’m interested in is the impact of this revised demography on the German welfare state in the future.

Let’s break it down.

Given that the median age of Islamic immigrants in Germany is 32, this means that there are 3.95 million aged 32 or younger.

There are only 22.86 million Germans (of both native, and Western-immigrant background) in Germany in that age group.  This means that 14.7% of Germany’s young population are newcomers from a different cultural heritage.

Given that 81% of these recent immigrants are unskilled by German standards, and that 80% of Germany’s Islamic population receives welfare payments from the government, I believe the question of whether or not this type of immigration will fix Germany’s demographic problem is an open and shut case.

Germany is making their economic and demographic problems many times worse, by bringing in immigrants who drain from the system, rather than pay into it—which was the whole point, was it not?

America has the same issue with illegal immigrants, to a lesser degree.


About Spencer P Morrison

JD candidate, writer, and independent intellectual with a focus on applied philosophy, empirical history, and practical economics.Author of “America Betrayed” and Editor-In-Chief of the National Economics Editorial.

21 thoughts on “1 in 7 (14.7%) Germans 32 & Younger Are Muslim—3 Times What Angela Merkel’s Government Claims

  1. Another sad day in Europe where it appears either one or two assailants killed four and injured many more in London. The British law enforcement is calling it likely an act of ‘international terrorism’, so it does not sound like some lone wolf scenario.

    Then ironically on The Guardian newspaper site today, there is a story about a Muslim in the FBI who is complaining about ‘poor treatment’. One thing about the Muzzies, they are the world’s best victims.

    I am awaiting the day when more and more people in the EU and the Americas come to their senses, Muslims live by the Koran, and often are willing to die for it and their ‘prophet’. It is not so surprising that Merkel’s Germany disclaims increasing numbers of Muslims within its borders, bad press you know, for those who claim the wonders of ‘multiculturalism’. As this article notes, the economic pluses from this kind of ‘immigrant’ is not real, there are no real pluses from having these people migrant into Europe.

    Liked by 1 person

    • “Another sad day in Europe” unless we oust Merkel and others like her Richard, in the EU this will never end. I personally have been following this 2011 after seven years I just give up. Yesterday I caught myself reciting the most peculiar lines would you believe this.

      “Wrap me in a shroud, lay me in a wicker coffin, slide me into the crematorium”

      Even here Ireland things are now getting out of hand simply because R.O.I are part of the EU and our imbicile leaders Kenny & President are too dependent on EU handouts. Sooner be poor than borrow from the EU at the price of foul Islam invading our shores. Since Morsi fell SISI has kept an Irish Muslim member of the Muslim Brotherhood in jail – and he won’t release the brat – he was imprisoned age 17. His family continuously whinge to have the demon released. The only way out I see is war all over Europe as of yesterday Israel is preparing for ‘Blue Alert’ – the sooner war the better it is all this scum understands.

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      • @ Ericka, take heart my friend, this video I will share here shows that a growing number of young women and men are waking up to the evil that is Islam. She speaks powerfully, truthfully, movingly. A best. Europe is not weak, it has experienced centuries of war and now treasures its relative peace, and these Muslim ‘infidels’ will be driven out like cockroaches.

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      • Marine Le Pen certainly put Merkel in her place, I hope she becomes President, sorely disappointed when Geert Wilders didn’t make it. And thank you today the sun is shining as yesterday seems Spring is almost here.

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  2. An outstanding video with Marine LePen, speaking to Angela Merkel, Marine is not afraid to tell truth to power, Merkel meanwhile looks like crap.

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  3. Richard Layman Thank you Richard, the most marvelous aspect of this video this generation will not tolerate ISLAM. Poland Hungary and other like minded Baltic and Eastern European States including Russia we must rally together and fight this onslaught. Thank you again very uplifting.

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    • @ Ericka. There are many of us who can see, without blinkers, what is happening in Europe. Here is another video, this of a German MP, who understands the danger of allowing in so many, who then with lawyers attempt to subvert the process of deportation. The key being of course closing borders to the mass migrations of undesirables.

      Even if all newcomers were somehow benign, and they are very far from that, what of the huge pressures on the German state and other countries in Europe, of integrating, educating, paying for housing, food, health care, and then what happens to others who are German born who would like having the jobs just given away to Muslims? There are many all of Europe and in the Americas who understand well the growing threat. Islamists openly state, as noted in another article about Marine Le Pen, an Islamic ‘imam’ saying ‘what is wrong with the idea of France being a Muslim state in 30 to 40 years’. They are telling us exactly what they want to happen.

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      • Thank you Richard, observing the body language of those two dreadful women sitting above the speaker – spoke volumes! Angela Merkel has committed treason against all European Nations, and it is time we took her trial. Putting into practice some ridiculous ideology, deemed by a German whose Mother was Japanese is utterly incomprehensible. Mixing European & Oriental races certainly is an enrichment to our our genes but the low life coming in will simply create a slave class. I feel this man with the Japanese mother whose name I can never recall Kalegerie? did not have in mind what Merkel has introduced? Today I read on another online publication Jihad Watch the Islamic nations sitting on the UN now want to put into law internationally blasphemy against Islam. How stupid have our leaders become? It struck me after reading the article, Islam is hellbent on taking over the world just as communism had decided to do. I can see only one solution and that is war, the first nations to be brought down must be all Arab Wahabbi States and IRAN. Restore the Shah’s son as King of Persia, Muslims must take their place in line with the rest of the world’s religions not dominate and further more Islam needs reformation as with Judaism & Christianity.

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      • @ Ericka, your points are well taken, splendidly expressed. The only exception I’d make is that the thought of people remaining pure to their European roots is most desirable, from my point of view at least. I found an article tonight which seems laughable, in the Guardian, it is noted that ‘refugees’ in the UK are being given accommodations in the ‘poorest’ parts of the country, when certainly they should have 5 star accommodations at all times (irony intended!)

        For those who an unfamiliar with him, Pat Condell has some excellent and often ironically funny videos on YouTube, for the most part speaking about the catastrophe that Islam is, and sadly that incoming Muslims are of course importing that same mad ‘philosophy’ right into the heart of Europe. Of course, to those who refuse to actually look at what is happening in Europe with Islamists seeking to wreak havoc, violence and bloodshed on democratic societies, it is supposedly because these ‘poor’ people have been persecuted, people don’t like them, and it’s all do to this that they attack us.

        Anyone who believes such rubbish, please do a google search for ‘violent passages in the Koran’, which will yield Muslims disdain and hatred for anyone not proclaiming to be faithful to their ‘prophet’ and their unholy book.

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      • Thanks Richard, for taking the trouble to reply, and the film which I have shared. We are certainly heading toward war, now Trump (whom I do respect) has used missiles before investigation of perp’s – has put up Russia’s back, China in her wisdom does not approve. His action has been seen as fool hearty or was it his bull necked Generals that authorized this? Trump not being a military man was dumbstruck, Nicki smart as she is resorted to feminine guile. War brings casualties it is the nature of war chemical or other wise. All this has done has increase Trump’s action as pandering to world PC opinion, including CNN who now sing US praises. Seems no one takes the long view? It is time we were gathering alliances between Russia China Europe US Japan and the rest of Asia Pacific (where Muslims have invaded) draw up a war strategy to deal with Islam once and for all. There are too many pussies in government around the world! Peace has to be faught for, 1400 years of Islam is enough for us all – despite the OIL.

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  4. @ Ericka, you’re certainly right about these highly uncertain times and the rising possibility of war. Today again another attack in Paris, hopefully this will give Marine Le Pen a boost for her campaign as she is advocating ‘no immigration’. It’s kind of like inviting in a bunch of arsonists into your country, hoping that somehow, if we are lucky, they won’t set any fires.

    Meanwhile, the Muslim apologists at first said ‘wait until the facts are in!’ after today’s killing, but now the Muslim terror front is accepting responsibility.

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    • Thanks Richard, we are now hoping this attack in France will finally persuade the undecided idiots out there to vote Lady Liberte into power! Macron is just a kid with a fancy banking background! Macron needs to stick with money markets, dealing & Mergers & Acquisitions. Nations are should not be stock markets run by Investment banks, largely a problem that arisen since 1984 (the so called big bang). This kid hadn’t even been born, one wonders was his father an Investment Baker with Bank Paribas or similar (couldn’t be bothered to Google so low in my estimation). Totally unsuitable for politics, we need Marine Le Pen. France will deal swiftly with Islam and come out of the EU, Italy should follow as should Scandinavia, Hungary will have no problem. The Baltics will have to learn to stand on their own two feet or go begging to Russia. Both Ireland & Italy have sold out their Oil reserves to Shell owned 60% or 40% by Saudi’s. Bribery & corruption for those in power in 2008. Both nations and any other with their own fields need to Hire investment banks to arrange a loan (retaining rights of Oil production & construction) these nations need to work this process as Norway did with STATOIL back in 1979/80. Norway is still producing her own OIL and as far as I know doesn’t sit on OPEC – Italy & Ireland could have done the same! Supplying Oil and Gas to European nations without these commodities. It’ll never happen and besides until Islam has been knocked out completely never will. Banks love the Sharia method of banking!

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      • @ Ericka, an important win for our side with Marine Le Pen, sadly many in France, her contenders, are advocating for their supporters against her in the second round of voting. It is always the same meandering ‘logic’, that to vote with her is supposedly ‘islamophobic’, which btw I read was a word coined in Saudi Arabia!

        Muslims are somewhat quiet in many nations until they become a significant minority or a majority. Why isn’t France, Ireland, England, Germany, Poland, why aren’t those nations allowed to have their own traditions, cultures, laws and mores. Certainly all non Islamic supporters of that ‘faith’ would be aghast if massive numbers of Europeans or Americans came clamoring into Islamic majority countries, decrying the ‘evils of secularism’ and driving them out, or more likely, outright killing any ‘infidels’

        I agree with you there is far too much collusion between Muslim Arab states between Europe and the UK, as you note well, it is of course about keeping the flow of oil going.

        Let us hope that Marine continues on to victory!

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  5. Here you see the official Statistic from the biggest State of Germany NRW:

    Amtliche Schulstatistik NRW, hier für die Jahre 2001 u. 2015.
    Hier der Link zu Konfession „islamisch“ im Schuljahr 2001 = 9,2 %, bitte auf Seite 17 scrollen.
    https://www.schulministerium.nrw.de/docs/bp/Ministerium/Service/Schulstatistik/Amtliche-Schuldaten/jSSK01.pdf

    Hier der Link zu Konfession „islamisch“ im Schuljahr 2015 = 14,6 %, bitte auf Seite 25 scrollen.
    https://www.schulministerium.nrw.de/docs/bp/Ministerium/Service/Schulstatistik/Amtliche-Schuldaten/Quantita_2015.pdf

    Und hier der Link zu den Schulstatistiken aller Bundesländer
    http://www.bildungsserver.de/Schulstatistiken-der-Laender-556.html

    1) Wie hat sich der Anteil der Schülerinnen/Schüler der Konfession „islamisch “ von 2001 (9,2%) bis 2015 (14,6%) entwickelt? ( Und das ohne den Massenzuzug nach 2015)
    9,2 = 100 %, 14,6×100/9,2 = 158,7 %., d.h. der Anteil ist in 14 Jahren um 58,7 % gestiegen.
    2) Hochrechnung: Bei gleicher Entwicklung für die Zukunft je 14 Jahre.
    Im Jahr 2029: 14,6 x 1,587 = 23,17 %, im Jahr 2043 = 36,77 %, im Jahr 2057 = 58,36 %.

    In the year 2001 9,2% of the pupils in NRW where Muslims-in the year 2015 it was 14,6%.

    Also in the statistic you can see that more than 35% of the children in NRW had 1 or 2 Parents that are foreigners.

    Like

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